Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-03T13:29:51

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been oscillating at mainly high levels through the last 24 hours, with this pattern expected to continue through much of 03 January in the absence of any significant geomagnetic activity. The forecast after 03 January is low confidence, as the electron flux could be reduced by the arrival of a CME which left the Sun on 30 December. This may distort the belts and redistribute the electrons, leading to lower electron observations at GEO. 

Electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold through 03 January, but will be affected should the flux fall rapidly. There is lower confidence in the fluence forecast from 04 January, as the overall level will be dependent on the balance between the strength of the solar wind and the magnitude of any geomagnetic activity. Based on the low confidence in the CME arrival and forecast potential effects of the coronal hole connections, the forecast is biased toward a continuation of Active electron fluence, but with falling probability through the next four days.