Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-03T00:12:34

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is at high levels (1e3 pfu) as the radiation belts are under the influence of a waning high speed stream. As the HSS eases back to ambient conditions, the electron reduction is normally quite slow, but the possible effects of the CME arrival on day 1 (03 January), may lead to significant redistribution of the electron counts in the belts. Further impacts from the forecast coronal hole high speed stream connection on days 2 and 3 (04 and 05 January) may then lead to a temporary reduction due to geomagnetic storming, although the forecast solar wind speed is considered lower than that required to significantly distort the radiation belts.

Electron fluence values are above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and are expected to remain above this level through much of day 1 (03 January) in the absence of significant modifying factors to the radiation belts. Uncertainty increases later in the period, but there is likely to be a balance between the level of any geomagnetic activity and electrons being restored into the belts by the solar wind.