Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-01-01T14:14:02

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES-16 is likely to be at Moderate to High levels, with an expected upward trend over the next couple of days due to the ongoing influence of CH59. Later in the period, if significant geomagnetic activity occurs due to a possible CME arrival and also the arrival of the next HSS, so the high energy electron flux may rapidly decrease to Background to Moderate levels.

The associated 24 hour fluence is therefore likely to show an upward trend, and it is likely that the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) will be exceeded by day 2 (2nd). However, late in the period a decreasing trend may develop.

The REFM is currently giving poor guidance, with observed values noticeably lower than the forecast values. However, the increasing upward trend in the fluence is considered reasonable guidance. Persistence is offering poor guidance with features on this rotation unlike the last.