Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-31T12:17:22

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 was at mostly Moderate to High levels, with a peak of 3680pfu at 30/1510 UTC. Flux is likely to trend upwards through days 1 and 2 (31st and 1st), perhaps becoming predominately High for a time before gradually subsiding later in the period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to rise in response, approaching, and likely exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on days 2 and 3 (1st and 2nd), with a chance of rising above this level by the end of day 1 (31st). REFM has yet to respond to the recent fast wind enhancement, so is currently giving poor guidance to expected fluence.