Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-30T13:18:25

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 was suppressed by the onset of fast winds and potential CME influence over the previous 24 hours, and the subsequent compression of the Van Allen Belts inside of GEO. However flux is expected to rebound back to be Moderate to High (above 1000 pfu), by the end of day 2 (31st) or day 3 (1st), and perhaps becoming predominately High with no further suppression expected through the period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to rise in response, approaching, and likely exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold day 3 and 4 (1st and 2nd), with a chance of rising above this level by the end of day 2 (31st). REFM has yet to respond to the recent fast wind enhancement, so is currently giving poor guidance to expected fluence.