Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-28T13:09:37

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GOES16 has been suppressed at GEO during 27 December due to Geomagnetic activity, but has since recovered and remains at Moderate levels close to the High threshold. This recovery will perhaps be short-lived, with the possible glancing blow from the 25 December CME arriving on Day 2 (29 December) and the arrival of a HSS from CH59/+ by Day 3 (30 December). A recovery in flux values is possible towards the very end of the period, but will be dependent on the strength of the HSS and its impact on the radiation belts. The changes in the shape and position of the upcoming coronal hole compared to the last rotation results in persistence forecasting and REFM providing little in the way of a useful steer.

The corresponding fluence levels may exceed the Active threshold during Days 1 and 2 (28 & 29 December), but otherwise are expected to remain at Background levels. Recharging and recovery of the radiation belts towards their usual position expected towards the very end of the period on Day 4 (31 December) at which point the chance of reaching or crossing the Active threshold increases.