Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-26T12:44:51

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently varying between Moderate and High levels. The electron fluence forecast inherits the very low confidence imparted by the geomagnetic activity forecast. The risk of Active electron fluence should be greatest on day one, Monday 26 December, with both confidence and flux falling sharply with any CME arrival, with uncertain recovery given the likely turbulent geomagnetic environment over the remaining days of the period.

Were all the CMEs to miss, flux levels would probably be greatest following the recently observed CH56/+ (perhaps still ongoing), with CH57/+ less threatening. CH59's effects would also probably fall outside the four-day period, with any eventual recovery probably developing before the UTC weekend.