Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-25T13:22:56

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently varying between moderate and high (1e3pfu) levels. This has coincided with a gradual weakening of the solar wind speeds and likely be a result of the radiation belts relaxing into their natural orbits following easing HSS influence. Based purely on effects from coronal holes, a slightly rising trend would be expected through the remainder of the period.

The forecast is subject to notable uncertainty however, and further rise could be limited based on the strength of any potential  geomagnetic activity which could redistribute electron populations. Possible CME effects on 26 and 27 December may have the effect of compressing belts and redistributing electrons.

Electron fluence values are likely to initially follow a slightly rising trend through 25 December likely reaching the Active threshold by the 26th December, with the subsequent trend seeing lower confidence and dependent on potential CME arrivals.