Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-24T12:42:47

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently following a low diurnal oscillation at Normal Background to Moderate levels. The forecast as a whole is low confidence, both due to changes in the geometry of CH57, but also because of the presence of CMEs in the forecast.

The current most likely scenario is an upward reaction later in the current UTC weekend from the current fast wind from coronal hole 56, with diurnal peak flux likely reaching High on 25 December. This may then manifest as Active 24-hour integrated fluence into Monday 26 December, depending upon the timing and strength of any enhancement from CH57 which is then due. The most significant complication to this is then the possibility of a CME from 24/0230UTC passing 1AU. Should this occur it will very likely compress the Van Allen belts and delay any eventual rise in flux and fluence, perhaps quashing any rise entirely by re-distributing electron populations.

The associated 24-hour electron fluence is forecast to see a rising trend, with a Chance of rising above the Active threshold by day 3 Monday 26 December, before possible suppression.