Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-23T13:22:36

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at largely background levels. Enhancements in the solar wind from coronal hole features through this period have the potential to result in increased electron counts, perhaps reaching High levels on the diurnal peaks later in the period. 

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but probably with a rising trend. On the previous rotation which was similar in terms of coronal holes, the fluence rose on the equivalent of Day 2 (24 Dec) but didn't quite reach Active for several more days. As such, fluence will probably rise during the period, however it is likely that it will stay below Active until next week. MOSWOC REFM is currently showing a fairly level trend through the next three days, but this is likely because it hasn't yet fully assimilated the recent rise in wind speeds.