Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-21T13:24:06

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background levels. Fast wind arrival either later on Day 1 or early on Day 2 (21-22 Dec) has the potential to result in increased counts later in the period, most likely rising to Moderate, with a chance of a diurnal peak of High on Days 3 and 4 (23-24 Dec). Some uncertainty is introduced by the fact that fast winds are likely to be ongoing for several days, so confidence in the timing and magnitude of any rise is only moderate at best.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, as indicated by REFM, which is currently giving good guidance. On the previous rotation which was similar in terms of coronal holes, the fluence rose on the equivalent of Day 4 but didn't quite reach Active for several more days. As such, fluence may rise later in the period, however this is low confidence and it is more likely fluence will stay below Active until next week.