MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-17T12:20:13
High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is currently varying between Background and Moderate levels. With no significant solar wind enhancements expected, these electron flux levels are expected to persist through the period. The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to persist below the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by REFM output which is currently giving realistic guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-12-17T12:20:13 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |