Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-13T13:07:05

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is only just reaching moderate levels at times. The currently observed background to moderate flux levels will probably be maintained through the period. There is a slight chance of an increase to reach high levels at the diurnal maxima if we see a HSS from the small northwestern coronal hole, but this is looking increasingly unlikely.

The 24-hour integrated electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with any increase now looking less likely than earlier. If any increase occurs it is likely to be modest and stay below Active levels. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting a slight rise below Active and this seems like good guidance, with reasonable confidence.