Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-10T12:33:50

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is likely to react upwards to the previous Elevated solar wind speeds and ongoing HSS influence, now that the peak threat of associated geomagnetic activity has passed.

The onset of this suggested rise is now later than expected, and may also be more muted than anticipated as a result. Electrons should rise to find their level by the end of the current UTC weekend, however this now looks more likely to result in sub-Active 24-hour integrated electron fluence.

MOSWOC Enlil remains steadfast in suggesting that a new high speed stream ought to round out the four-day forecast period. This hole is a negative polarity feature that extends down from the northern hemisphere towards the solar equator. This may serve to dent electron counts at the very end of the period.