Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-09T13:06:03

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to react upwards to the current fast wind into the coming UTC weekend, now that the peak threat of associated geomagnetic activity appears to have passed. The magnitude as to which this occurs is lower than average confidence as CH53/- is not a persistent feature in its current larger and more intense form (compared to November). As a result, the persistence forecast for electrons is expected to be significantly underplayed and MOSWOC REFM is likely to be too damped.

All considered, the current diurnal flux oscillation should rise in amplitude over the next 48 hours, probably stabilising at a new higher baseline by day three, Sunday 11 December, with this slightly more likely than not to be in excess of Active 24-hour integrated fluence. 

It should be noted that the above forecast does not account for any possible interrupting transient activity as there was none confirmed at the time of writing.