Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-08T13:02:43

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as observed by GOES16, was demonstrating a diurnal oscillation between Moderate and High flux levels, but fell to Background levels around 07/1745 UTC where it has since remained. This is likely as a result of geomagnetic activity from the arrival of CH53/-, perhaps combined with some transient influence. Further charging from the current HSS is possible, so as this wanes and the radiation belt decompresses, electron flux levels may well start to rise again from Day 2 (9 Dec).

Electron fluence is currently declining after the flux dropped out. However, a recovery is possible from Day 2 (9 Dec) with a chance of Active (1e8 integrated pfu) conditions by Day 3. MOSWOC REFM is suggesting a recovery in fluence levels, although below the Active threshold.

Confidence in the likelihood of a recovery of electron levels is moderate, but is low for the timing of any increase, as the driving coronal hole during the period is much-changed from the last rotation.