Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-07T00:35:03

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as observed by GOES16, is currently demonstrating a diurnal oscillation between Moderate and High flux levels. This pattern is expected to continue until late Day 1 (7 Dec) or early Day 2 (8 Dec), at which point geomagnetic activity resulting from the arrival of CH53 may result in disruption and compression of the radiation belt. As influence from the HSS wanes, a recovery in electron flux levels is likely on Days 3 and 4 (9th/10th).

Levels of electron fluence are currently at Background levels, but very close to the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). Fluence may cross the Active threshold on Day 1, followed by a probable decline due to the arrival of the HSS and a recovery from Day 3 (9 Dec), once more giving a chance of Moderate fluence levels.

Confidence in the above forecast is relatively low, as flux and fluence levels are currently marginal and the driving coronal hole during the period is much-changed from the last rotation