Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-05T12:33:47

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as observed by GOES16, is currently fluctuating near High levels after some disturbance due to the arrival of the recent weak CME. Flux would be expected to persist at these levels, and perhaps rise back more persistently above High levels until the arrival of a HSS from CH53 on Day 3 (7th), at which point the observed flux is likely to fall to Background levels. 

Associated fluence is expected to remain Active (above 1e8 integrated pfu) on Day 1 (5th), with a gradual decline to below active threshold as indicated by recurrence, which is probably giving better representation than REFM at present. However, there is a chance fluence may stay above the Active threshold into Day 2 (6th) before declining to below threshold.