Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-04T01:23:17

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as observed by GOES16, is currently High and in the absence of any disturbance would be expected to persist at these levels until the arrival of the fast wind of CH53 on day 4 (7th). This arrival is then likely to cause the observed flux to drop out towards background. The main source of uncertainty is the potential CME arrival early on day 1 (4th). Despite being a weak CME, any arrival would likely result in flux levels also dropping out for a period, potentially to background, before recovering to uncertain levels, but probably High, as the Van Allen Belts relax back outward later day 1 or day 2 (4th or 5th).

Associated 24 hour fluence is expected to be Active (above 1e8 integrated pfu) for much of the period as indicated by REFM, although the potential CME drop out decreasing confidence from day 2 onward. Fluence is also likely to decrease below Active later day 4 (7th), but will likely start the day above this level. Given the current observed flux, if the CME arrival doesn't occur on day 1 (4th), then it is possible that Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu) could be briefly reached.