Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-02T13:24:37

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as observed by GOES16, is currently at High levels (above 1000 pfu) and expected to persist at this level for much of the period, with a potential increasing trend. There is a chance of a drop out early day 3 (4th) due to any potential CME arrival.

Consequently the associated Fluence levels are currently above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) and are expected to increase through the following days as the HSS wanes. Confidence is high that the fluence will remain predominantly above Active with only a reduction in confidence by day 4 (5th). REFM has struggled to handle the recent fast wind arrivals, however it is now giving good guidance for Active fluence to persist.