Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-12-01T13:28:54

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as observed by GOES16, was at high levels before dropping sharply after 30/1800 UTC. This was due to increased geomagnetic activity associated with the ongoing HSS from CH49 and then CH51. This HSS is also likely to be compressing the main radiation belt inside the GEO orbit. Further charging is likely to be taking place from this HSS, and as it wanes, an increase in electron flux is likely.

Fluence levels are currently above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) fluence threshold, but are likely to have peaked in the short term with a brief declining trend, perhaps below Active briefly, before soon rising back above into day 2 (2nd). Fluence levels are then likely to increase in the following days as the HSS wanes. Confidence in an increasing trend is reasonable, but low for the timing of the increase. REFM is forecasting above Active through the next 3 days, although forecast values may be too high especially in the short term.