Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-30T14:28:55

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), observed by GOES16, is at high levels. This has been a result of the relaxing of the Van Allen belts post charging event from coronal hole 49. A re-compression is then expected due to the arrival of coronal hole 51 late day 1 (30th) or on day 2 (1st). Confidence is relatively low due to uncertainty surrounding possible geomagnetic responses during the arrival of CH51 HSS, as well as any activity due to the ongoing strong winds. However, it is likely that the High threshold (1e3 pfu) will be breached each day during the diurnal maximum. 

Fluence levels are marginally below the 1e8 integrated electron fluence active threshold, yet on a continued rising trend and are expected to go above the active threshold by 20/1500UTC. The confidence of active electron fluence reduces each day until day 4 (3rd) due to the expected recompression event and geomagnetic response from coronal hole 51. High electron fluence is considered likely again on day 4 (3rd) after the HSS from coronal hole 51 has passed.