Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-30T00:04:22

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), observed by GOES16, has shown a steadily increasing trend having increased above the high threshold from 29/1355 UTC. It has remained mostly just above this threshold. This has been a result of the relaxing of the Van Allen belts post charging event from coronal hole 49. A re-compression is then expected due to the arrival of coronal hole 51 late day 1 (30th) or on day 2 (1st). Confidence is relatively low due to uncertainty surrounding possible geomagnetic responses during the arrival of CH51 HSS, as well as any activity due to the ongoing strong winds. However, it is likely that the High threshold (1e3 pfu) will be breached each day during the diurnal maximum. 

Fluence levels are below the 1e8 integrated electron fluence active threshold, however they are on a slow but steady rise, with a chance of reaching above the active threshold each day.