Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-29T00:16:09

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) observed by GOES16 has been at background to moderate levels. Flux levels may increase over the next couple of days to reach High levels during the diurnal maxima. However, impacts of further coronal hole HSS influences through the period may have the impact of knocking out electrons or compressing the electron field, acting to inhibit the potential for a protracted period of High flux levels. Therefore, confidence is low.

Fluence levels have dropped sharply and are well below the 1e8 integrated electron fluence active threshold, and also well below REFM and recurrence predictions. An overall rising trend is probable through the period, however given the uncertainties mentioned regarding further coronal hole effects, coupled with uncertain model guidance, confidence is low.