Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-27T12:04:11

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) observed by GOES16 has been at mainly moderate levels. In coming days, flux levels may begin to reach High levels during the diurnal maxima. The upward trend will likely continue through the period, although the possible CME arrival between 27th-29th may have the impact of knocking out some electrons within the electron field and curb the expected rise.

Fluence levels will respond by increasing with a chance of reaching the 1e8 integrated electron fluence active threshold from day 3 (29th Nov). This forecast is based on recurrence from the previous rotation, where Active fluence was observed, though confidence is rather low given additional complications owing to one or more CMEs expected during the period.