Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-26T12:06:56

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) observed by GOES16 has been at normal background levels in recent days. The effects of the incumbent fast wind on electron populations at GEO should start to be seen into the coming UTC weekend, with the current flux perhaps reaching diurnally High levels in the succession of CH47/+ and then CH48/+, although this depends on intervening CME activity and the magnitude of these HSS.

The quieter conditions that should greet the forthcoming new UTC working week should allow the Van Allen belts to equilibrate, and offers the greatest likelihood of exceeding Active 24-hour integrated fluence. This suggestion is based on recurrence from the previous rotation, where Active fluence was observed, though confidence is rather low given additional complications owing to one or more CMEs expected during the period.