Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-25T12:35:54

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) observed by GOES16 has been at Normal Background in recent days. The effects of the incumbent fast wind on electron populations at GEO should start to be seen into the coming UTC weekend, with the current flux perhaps reaching diurnally High levels in the succession of CH47 and then CH48, although this depends on intervening CME activity and the magnitude of these high speed streams.

The quieter conditions that should greet the forthcoming new UTC working week should allow the Van Allen belts to equilibrate, and ought to offer the highest likelihood of exceeding Active 24-hour integrated fluence. Because this occurred on last rotation this is considered 'odds on', however there are added CME complications on this occasion that render the uncertainties a little higher.