Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-24T12:06:01

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) observed by GOES16 is forecast to be predominantly Moderate in response to the arrival of a coronal hole HSS on day 1 (24th). Flux levels then remaining Moderate for much of the period, with a chance of peaking High later in the period. There is low confidence by day 3 (26th), due to the uncertainty in the arrival of fast winds and glancing blows from any potential CME arrivals which could act to suppress observed flux at GEO later in the period.

The associated 24-hour fluence is forecast to remain below the Active threshold, with a slight chance of rising to Active by the end of the period. REFM is currently maintaining background fluence levels, which is good guidance if the enhancement on day 1 does not occur.