Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-23T13:19:09

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16 is forecast to increase in response to any fast wind arrival through the day 1 and 2 (23rd and 24th). Moderate levels are likely by day 2 (24th), perhaps peaking High later in the period. This is very low confidence however, with the potential fast wind arrival on day 1 and 2 uncertain, and further potential fast wind and CME arrivals by day 4 (26th) potentially suppressing observed flux at GEO later in the period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to remain below the Active threshold, with a slight chance of rising to Active by the end of the period. REFM is currently maintaining background fluence levels, which is good guidance if the enhancement day 1 or 2 (23rd or 24th) doesn't materialise.