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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-22T12:35:37

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 has been near Normal Background levels throughout the last 24 hours. This is now thought very likely to remain the case for much of the period, there are no further features of significant magnitude due in the forecast, CH47/+ included.

24-hour integrated electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout, as on last rotation, with CH48's predecessor the only upcoming feature that proved capable of raising counts, and this is forecast to be both lesser magnitude and later than on its previous pass, putting any significant electron fluence increase beyond the scope of the coming four days.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2022-11-22T12:35:37
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 1% 1%
Day 3 5% 1%
Day 4 10% 1%