Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-21T12:26:52

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 is at mainly Background, briefly Moderate levels. The likely solar wind enhancement on day 1 into day 2 (21st and 22nd) has the potential to increase the electron content in the Van Allen belts, although these are likely to initially be compressed inside of GEO. As solar wind pressure eases later in the period, the observed flux is likely to rise, perhaps reaching Moderate to diurnally High levels. The strength of any response is very low confidence however, with no significant increase in flux observed on the previous pass of this coronal hole, 27 days ago. 

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but with a likely upward trend through the period. REFM is currently giving good guidance, however persistence looks a better guide regarding expected trends in the forecast period.