Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-19T12:42:32

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 is at mainly Background, briefly Moderate, levels, and well below the Active threshold.

A forecast solar wind enhancement later day 1 and through to day 3 (19-21 November) has the potential to increase the electron content in the Van Allen belts, although these will initially be compressed inside of GEO. As solar wind pressure eases later in the period, the observed flux is likely to rise, perhaps reaching Moderate to High levels. The strength of any response is very low confidence however, with no increased flux observed on the previous pass of this coronal hole, 27 days ago. 

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but with a chance of rising above by day 4 (Tuesday 22 November). REFM is currently giving good guidance, however this will become less reliable with the expected solar wind enhancement.