Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-18T13:27:29

Electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is at background levels and is forecast to be at background to moderate levels through much of the forecast period, with radiation belt modelling suggesting a muted electron belt forecast, with GOES-16 expected to remain outside the main region of electron belt density. This is likely to be due initially any geomagnetic activity displacing electron belts away from satellite orbits, but also due to the expected onset of the high speed stream later in the period, which is likely to compress the radiation belts away from satellite orbits.

MOSWOC REFM models suggest that electron fluence values will remain below the Active threshold, with this trend accepted, based on electron flux forecasts.