MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-17T12:05:08
Electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at mostly background levels and is forecast to be at background to moderate levels through much of the coming 4-day period.
Electron fluence values are well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and are expected to remain so throughout the period. The MOSWOC REFM output currently supports electron fluence values remaining below the Active threshold which offers good guidance. Fluence levels on the last rotation remained below the Active threshold with slightly faster wind speeds, and a similar trend is considered to be a probable outcome.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-11-17T12:05:08 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |