Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-16T00:25:22

Electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at mostly background levels and is forecast to be at background to moderate levels through much of the coming 4-day period. The arrival of weak HSS influence from two coronal holes is probable during Day 1 (16 Nov), although significant charging is considered unlikely from these features. Moderate or perhaps briefly High electron flux is possible at the diurnal maxima from Day 2 (17 Nov) onwards, but persistently high levels are considered unlikely, with reasonable confidence.

Electron fluence values are well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and are expected to remain so throughout the period, with a slight rising trend possible from Day 3 (17 Nov). The MOSWOC REFM output currently supports electron fluence values remaining below the Active threshold with a mostly flat trend indicated which offers good guidance. Fluence levels on the last rotation remained below the Active threshold with slightly faster wind speeds, and a similar trend is considered to be a probable outcome.