Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-14T00:43:22

Electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at mostly background levels, and is forecast to be at background to moderate levels through the period. The recent weak high speed stream didn't produce much in the way of geomagnetic activity so significant charging in the radiation belt is considered unlikely to have occurred. Whilst a further weak high speed stream is possible on Days 2 and 3 (15-16 Nov) from two small coronal holes, again significant charging is considered unlikely from either of these features. As such, moderate electron flux is possible at the diurnal maxima but higher levels are unlikely, with reasonable confidence.

Electron fluence values are well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and are expected to remain so throughout the period, with a slight rising trend possible. The MOSWOC REFM currently supports electron fluence values remaining below the Active threshold on a slight rising trend. Fluence levels on the last rotation remained below the Active threshold and wind speeds were slightly higher last time around so a similar trend seems reasonable.