MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-13T00:10:03
Electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at Background to Moderate levels. Electron flux is forecast to remain at predominantly Background to Moderate levels through the period.
Electron fluence values are well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and are expected to remain so throughout the period, with a largely flat trend most probable. The MOSWOC REF Model currently supports electron fluence values remaining below the 1e8 Active threshold, however, model confidence in absolute values is low.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-11-13T00:10:03 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |