MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-12T00:30:31
Electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at Background to Moderate levels. Electron flux is forecast to remain at predominantly Background to Moderate levels through the period, with the most probable trend a steady decrease. On day 1 (12 November), there is a slight chance of perhaps briefly approaching or exceeding the High threshold (1e3 pfu) during a diurnal peak.
Electron fluence values are below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and are expected to remain so throughout the period, with a largely downward trend most probable.
The MOSWOC REF Model is currently supports electron fluence values remaining below the 1e8 Active threshold, however, model confidence in absolute values beyond day 2 (13 November) is low.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-11-12T00:30:31 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |