Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-10T12:01:49

Electron flux (greater than 2MeV) increased from mostly background levels to mostly moderate levels through the period. Electron belt modelling for the next 24 hours is showing a potential decrease in electron flux at GOES-16 with flux forecast to remain below the high (1e3 pfu) threshold. Although confidence is low for the remaining three days, given the uncertainty in weak coronal hole connection and subsequent high speed stream effects, electron flux levels are likely to remain below the high level, with only a low risk of reaching this level on diurnal peaks.

Electron fluence values are below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and although observations have shown a rising trend, fluence is expected to remain below the Active level.