MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-09T12:35:10
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) at GOES-16 was at background to moderate levels during the past 24 hours, with a peak of 365 pfu at 08/1700 UTC. Background to moderate levels are now expected to be maintained for much of the period, possibly increasing to high levels at diurnal maxima.
Electron fluence levels are now well below the Active threshold. Confidence in the forecast is high initially. This lowers to moderate by the end of the period given uncertainties over the duration and strength of any geomagnetic activity resulting from one or more forecast high speed streams that are due to affect Earth.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-11-09T12:35:10 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |