Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-08T13:00:30

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) though initially high over the past 24 hours, dropped dramatically with the CME arrival on the 7th, significantly suppressing electron counts to background or moderate levels. Background to moderate levels are now expected to be maintained for much of the period, possibly increasing to high levels at times of diurnal maxima. 

Electron fluence values have fallen below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and are expected to remain below in the coming days. Confidence in this forecast is high initially. This lowers to moderate by the end of the period given uncertainties over the duration and strength of any geomagnetic activity resulting from one or more forecast high speed streams that are due to affect Earth.