Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-07T00:35:03

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has remained at high levels over the past 24 hours with this likely to continue as a result of the recent input into the radiation belts. These levels will probably be maintained for much of the coming guidance period given that no significant geomagnetic activity expected. Brief declines are possible due to diurnal variations, but these are unlikely to be sustained.

Electron fluence is also expected to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for much of the period. The risk is considered lower towards the end of the period simply due to reduced confidence in any geomagnetic activity and rate of electron losses in the radiation belts.

There remains a slight chance of reaching Very High (1e9 integrated pfu) levels through the period.