Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-05T12:08:05

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has remained at high levels over the past 24 hours with this likely to continue as a result of the recent input into the radiation belts. This is only likely to decrease slowly through the next four days, with no significant geomagnetic activity expected. Brief declines are possible due to diurnal variations, but these are unlikely to be sustained.

Electron fluence has risen sharply in response to the increase flux and is expected to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for much of the period. The risk is considered lower towards the end of the period simply due to reduced confidence in any geomagnetic activity and rate of electron losses in the radiation belts.