Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-04T13:05:26

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is currently oscillating between moderate and high levels, after being somewhat knocked back by the recent high speed stream. As the high speed stream eases, electron levels are expected to rise once again as the radiation belt decompresses. It is difficult to say how much further charging may have occurred during the fast winds, so confidence in the magnitude of any increase is low, but an increase to largely high levels seems likely.

The 24 hour electron fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold but is expected to rise during the next couple of days as the flux starts to increase again. Although the magnitude of any rise is low confidence, it seems likely that fluence levels will go above the Active threshold, given that current readings are not far below that level.