Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-02T13:29:12

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently oscillating through moderate to high levels on a diurnal cycle. This pattern is expected to continue through the period, based on electron belt models with the radiation belts receiving a feed of electrons from recent high speed streams. There is a likelihood that the onset of a high speed stream either late on 03 November or early on 04 November could be strong enough to distort the belts out of their natural orbits and lead to a dip in the flux, with a sharp recovery as the belts relax later in the period as the potential strong solar wind eases.

Electron fluence has followed an upward trend after falling just below the Active threshold in the last 24 hours. The longevity of this trend is uncertain, but there remains a continued risk of the fluence exceeding the Active threshold over the next four days in the high electron flux environment.