Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-01T13:19:29

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue at moderate to high levels through much of the period. There is a risk of brief declines due to strong high speed streams deforming the radiation belts away from their natural orbits, but an increase should then be observed as the belts relax.

The electron fluence values are expected to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for much of the period in the presence of coronal hole high speed streams which will provide a consistent source of additional electrons. The overall fluence is unlikely to be significantly affected by brief declines in flux and should remain above the Active threshold in the absence of significant geomagnetic activity.