Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-11-01T00:17:16

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES-16 is forecast to be at moderate to high levels

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is likely to remain just above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for much of the period, although a dip is probable due to the arrival of the HSS from CH39 on days 3 and 4 (3 and 4 Nov) and the natural waning effects of the electron fields, confidence also declines with time. Recurrence favours the elevated electron flux and fluence values for several days, though persistence shows on previous rotation the Active fluence threshold was not reached. The Met Office REFM output also shows good guidance for Active electron fluence initially, with a waning trend.