MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-30T12:01:27
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES-16 is forecast to be at moderate levels, probably reaching high levels especially during the diurnal maximum on each day. The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to continue to increase, and likely to exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by day 3 (1 Nov). Recurrence strongly favours this upward progression in activity with several days of active fluence observed, and Met Office REFM output also shows good guidance in this respect. The (1e9 integrated pfu) threshold is unlikely to be breached but probabilities in the table above have been raised to a slight chance to reflect the uncertainty.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-10-30T12:01:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 80% | 10% |