MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-30T00:14:31
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES-16 is forecast to be at background to moderate levels, perhaps peaking at high levels during the diurnal maximum on days 1 and 2 (30th/31st), likely rising on day 3 and 4 (1st/2nd November) as solar wind pressure decreases. The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to continue to increase, exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by day 3 (1st Nov).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-10-30T00:14:31 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 1% |