Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-29T00:21:37

On days 1-2 (29th and 30th) elevated solar winds are expected to maintain compression on the Van Allen belts, keeping the observed high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux by GOES-16 at GEO largely at Background to Moderate, with only a slight chance of rising to High. This is due to the recent fast wind arrival from CH36/37, and potentially also a further arrival day 3 (31st) from CH38/+. Most likely on day 4 (1st), the Van Allen belts, now populated with electrons from the recent enhancements, are expected to relax back towards GEO. A subsequent increase in flux is then likely, becoming High at diurnal maximum.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, but has a chance of rising day by day, most likely rising above the Active threshold by day 4 (1st). This is similar to the previous rotation, and REFM is also currently giving good guidance.